Energy Inflation: The Research Brief

Research BriefSources checked October 2, 2026

This brief backs up our article Energy Inflation and Your Operating Budget. For each section of the article, it shows the facts we relied on, the source each one came from and how we used it, so you can check any line for yourself.

How we put this together

  • Primary sources first: federal agencies, national laboratories, the region’s grid operator, utilities, state program administrators and peer-reviewed research.
  • Figures appear as published. Where we did the math ourselves (a percent change, a dollar example), the table says so.
  • Averages stay averages. Study results describe many buildings and are never presented as a promise for any one building or product.
  • Dated items, such as program terms, rates and forecasts, were checked on October 2, 2026. They change, so confirm them before you plan.
  • Facts about Affinity come from Affinity and are marked as company information.
  • EIA’s average price is total revenue divided by kilowatt-hours sold: an all-in average, not a tariff rate. Prices are nominal.

A cost that outran inflation

What the article says. New England commercial electricity rose about 38% from 2019 to 2025, faster than general inflation, and the climb has not been a straight line.

The factSourceHow the article uses it
New England’s average commercial electricity price rose from 16.33 cents per kWh in 2019 to 22.58 cents in 2025.[1] EIA, Electric Power Monthly (Feb 2026)
[2] EIA, Electric Power Monthly (Feb 2021)
“Rose about 38%.” We calculated the percent change.
Overall consumer prices (CPI-U) rose about 26% from 2019 to 2025.[3] BLS, Consumer Price Index“Overall consumer prices rose about 26%.”
The national commercial average went from 10.68 to 13.41 cents per kWh over the same years, so New England stays well above it.[1] EIA, Electric Power Monthly (Feb 2026)
[2] EIA, Electric Power Monthly (Feb 2021)
Background. Not quoted.
New Hampshire’s commercial average fell from 20.40 cents in 2023 to 19.40 cents in 2024, and Central Maine Power’s small commercial standard offer has swung from about 6 cents in 2021 to nearly 18 cents in early 2023 and back down.[5] EIA, New Hampshire electricity profile
[16] Maine PUC, CMP standard offer
“The climb has not been a straight line.”
In 2025, New England’s total wholesale electricity costs rose about 48%, to $15.0 billion, mainly because natural gas prices roughly doubled. Winter 2025 to 2026 had the highest wholesale costs of any winter since 2014.[10] ISO New England, 2025 Annual Markets Report
[11] ISO New England, Winter 2026 report
“Winter is the pressure point, because New England leans on natural gas to make electricity.”

How the bill works, in plain English

What the article says. A bill has supply and delivery, and many accounts also pay a demand charge set by the busiest 15 or 30 minutes of the month.

The factSourceHow the article uses it
A commercial bill has supply (the electricity) and delivery (distribution, transmission, a customer charge and program charges). Many accounts also pay a demand charge billed in kilowatts.[12] Eversource NH, rate summary
[13] Eversource NH, delivery tariff
The two parts of the bill and the demand charge.
Utilities usually set demand from the busiest interval of the month: Eversource in New Hampshire uses the busiest half hour; National Grid in Massachusetts uses the busiest 15 minutes on its general service demand rate.[13] Eversource NH, delivery tariff
[14] National Grid MA, Rate G-2
“Your single busiest 15 or 30 minutes, all month long.”

An example: one busy morning

What the article says. One busy stretch can set the demand charge for the month, and lighting lowers it only when the lights are part of that peak.

The factSourceHow the article uses it
Lighting savings lower demand only when the lights are on during the interval that sets the peak. Efficiency on its own is not typically very effective at reducing peak demand.[15] Clean Energy Group and NREL, demand chargesThe two outcomes in the example. The school is an illustration, not a measured project.

Why a proposal priced at today’s rate falls short

What the article says. A proposal priced at today’s rate holds the price still for every future year, so plan with three cases instead of one forecast.

The factSourceHow the article uses it
The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts New England’s average commercial price at 23.52 cents per kWh for 2026 and 24.12 cents for 2027.[6] EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook“A forecast is not a promise.” The article does not quote the forecast.
Prices have also fallen in some years.[5] EIA, New Hampshire electricity profileWhy the article asks for a lower case alongside flat and rising ones.

Where lighting fits

What the article says. Lighting savings come from efficiency and control together, every building is different, and the savings can fund the payments.

The factSourceHow the article uses it
In a DLC and NEEA study of 194 buildings, networked lighting controls saved 49% of lighting energy on average, on top of LED. It is an average, not a prediction for any one building.[9] DLC and NEEA, NLC savings with and without LLLCSupports “efficiency and control together.” The article leaves the number to Beyond LED.
Fewer than 1% of US commercial lighting was connected to controls in the Department of Energy’s 2017 baseline.[17] DOE, SSL Energy Savings ForecastThe “Already have LED?” paragraph.
A lighting project can be structured so the electric savings fund the payments; each organization’s finance team and counsel decide what fits.Affinity LED“The savings fund the payments.”

What this means for your budget

What the article says. Plan the price as a range, control how much electricity the buildings need, and start with a Free Energy Assessment.

The factSourceHow the article uses it
The Free Energy Assessment: a real person from Affinity calls within one business day, walks the buildings with you, and puts the numbers in writing for each building, at no cost.Affinity LEDThe closing call to action.

Also reviewed

We read these while reporting the article. They support its direction, and the later parts of the series draw on them.

The factSourceWhy it is here
Lighting used about 17% of US commercial building electricity in the most recent national survey (208 of 1,196 billion kWh).[7] EIA, 2018 CBECS Table E5
[8] EIA, lighting electricity FAQ
Left out of the article: the share depends on the building, which is why the assessment measures yours.
From 2019 to 2025, commercial prices rose 38% in Connecticut, 63% in Maine, 37% in Massachusetts, 27% in New Hampshire, 43% in Rhode Island and 25% in Vermont.[1] EIA, Electric Power Monthly (Feb 2026)
[2] EIA, Electric Power Monthly (Feb 2021)
Part 2 of the series. We calculated the percent changes.
New England’s preliminary commercial average for January through July 2026 was 23.50 cents, up from 22.68 cents for the same months of 2025.[4] EIA, Electric Power Monthly year to datePart 2 of the series.
Eversource New Hampshire’s default supply price for mid-size commercial accounts is about 10.5 cents per kWh for October 2026 and about 18.4 cents for December 2026.[12] Eversource NH, rate summaryPart 2 of the series: planning for winter.
Nationally, demand charges can make up 30 to 70 percent of the monthly bill for many commercial customers. That is a national range, not a New England benchmark.[15] Clean Energy Group and NREL, demand chargesPart 2 of the series.

Questions readers ask

What is the difference between a kilowatt and a kilowatt-hour?

A kilowatt (kW) measures power: how fast a building draws electricity at a given moment. A kilowatt-hour (kWh) measures energy: one kilowatt used for one hour. Usage charges bill kWh. Demand charges bill kW, usually the building's highest average draw over a 15- or 30-minute interval. Think gallons of water used (kWh) versus the size of the pipe you need at your busiest moment (kW).

How much do commercial buildings in New England pay for electricity?

In 2025, New England's average commercial price was 22.58 cents per kWh, compared with 13.41 cents nationally, based on preliminary federal data [1]. By state it ranged from 19.92 cents in Vermont to 23.46 cents in Rhode Island. The average spreads delivery and demand charges across every kWh, so it is an all-in figure, not a tariff rate.

Will New England electricity prices keep rising?

No one can promise it. The current federal forecast has New England's average commercial price rising from 22.58 cents per kWh in 2025 to 24.12 cents in 2027 [6], but prices have also fallen in some years [5]. Plan with a range of rates, not a single number.

Do LED lights reduce demand charges?

They can. A lower-wattage or dimmed fixture draws less power every moment it is on, which lowers billed demand when lighting is part of the load during the interval that sets your peak. If the peak comes from other equipment at another time, lighting savings show up mainly in kWh.

Does a fixed-price supply contract protect my operating budget?

Only partly. It can steady the price of the electricity itself, but it does not fix delivery charges, which are set through regulated utility rates. When the contract ends, you renew or return to the default rate at whatever prices apply then. Using fewer kWh and drawing fewer kW lowers what you pay under most contracts; check yours for minimum-usage terms.

How much energy do lighting controls save?

In a DesignLights Consortium and Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance study of 194 buildings, networked lighting controls saved 49% of lighting energy on average, on top of LED [9]. It is an average, not a prediction for any one building. Savings depend on how each space is used.

What does Affinity's Free Energy Assessment include?

Three steps, no cost and no obligation. A real person from our team calls you within one business day. We walk your buildings with you. Then you get real numbers in writing for each building: what it costs to light today, what it could cost, and how the savings can pay for the work.

Sources

  1. US Energy Information Administration. Electric Power Monthly, February 2026, Table 5.6.B (2025 and 2024, preliminary), 2026.
  2. US Energy Information Administration. Electric Power Monthly, February 2021, Table 5.6.B (2020 and 2019), 2021.
  3. US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), US city average, annual averages 2019 and 2025, 2026.
  4. US Energy Information Administration. Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B, year to date through July 2026 and 2025 (released September 24, 2026), 2026.
  5. US Energy Information Administration. New Hampshire Electricity Profile 2024, State Tables, 2025.
  6. US Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, Table 7c (US Regional Electricity Prices), 2026.
  7. US Energy Information Administration. 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), Table E5: Electricity Consumption by End Use, 2022.
  8. US Energy Information Administration. How much electricity is used for lighting in the United States? (FAQ), 2024.
  9. DesignLights Consortium and Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance. Energy Savings from Networked Lighting Control (NLC) Systems With and Without LLLC, 2020, with Clarifications to the 2020 Report (memorandum), 2025.
  10. ISO New England, Internal Market Monitor. 2025 Annual Markets Report, 2026.
  11. ISO New England, Internal Market Monitor. Winter 2026 Quarterly Markets Report, 2026.
  12. Eversource (Public Service Company of New Hampshire). 2026 Summary of Electric Rates, updated August 1, 2026.
  13. Eversource (Public Service Company of New Hampshire). NHPUC No. 11 Electricity Delivery Tariff, 2026.
  14. National Grid (Massachusetts Electric Company). General Service Demand G-2 Retail Delivery Service, M.D.P.U. No. 1547, 2024.
  15. Clean Energy Group and National Renewable Energy Laboratory. An Introduction to Demand Charges, 2017.
  16. Maine Public Utilities Commission. Standard Offer Rates for Central Maine Power: Residential and Small Commercial Customers, 2026.
  17. US Department of Energy, Solid-State Lighting Program. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, 2019.
  18. Affinity LED company information, 2026: company history, product specifications and services, confirmed by Affinity.

The article

Energy Inflation and Your Operating Budget

Read the article this brief supports.